Task 2 Inputs to decision making - data, information & knowledge; systems analysis.

Problem

Project Managers have to enter revenue forecast information into one system, while actual invoiced values come from another. These values are then reconciled monthly.

Issue

The issue is that this information is prone to inaccuracy and or entered late.

Reasons for inaccuracy

• Projects are tracked in Australia in AUD while the Resource Forecast has to be mapped in USD.
• Each month a snap shot is taken of live projects for the past month to be compared against actual revenue for the current month.
• There are multiple points where information and knowledge is put in and taken out.
• Any mismatch between the revenue forecast and the actual invoicing is flagged as an exception.
• Schedule changes and variations to projects affect actuals but may not be reflected in the forecast.

Looking at the process flow above, you can see where I have highlighted the points that are prone to error and the information and knowledge flows, both in and out. The diagram indicates that there are issues around currency conversion, the fact that known data or knowledge is entered in at the TS point and invoicing stages but then through the addition of ERP information, has to be re-analysed to again become knowledge.

Through analysing this process I have developed four possible options listed below and shown graphically in figure 2.

1. Change all local Australian systems to use USD. This has the risk of causing issues and confusion with invoicing and errors if values are mistakenly entered as AUD. The benefits are that currency conversion is removed.
2. Do nothing and leave the systems as is. There are no benefits to this choice, however there are also no additional risks involved.
3. Replace all systems with a single source of truth that can be used by all parties across the global organisation. This is easily the highest risk option as it would involve the introduction of a new system, training will be required and the costs could be high. This option also has the highest benefit as it will remove all inputs and outputs from disparate data sources and automated and contiguous workflows could be introduced.
4. Cover the issues with a procedural solution. This would be low risk in that no new technologies are introduced and the benefits are relatively high if the procedures are governed appropriately.

 

Conclusion

Balancing the risk/benefit of the options, I have chosen to take option four. This includes introducing procedures that need to be followed at certain times of the month, as well as a governance model to police these procedures. Additionally we can see that by transforming data into information and then knowledge, we get a much clearer view of the necessary decisions.

Task 2 comment - Teresiah

Task 1 - Decision Making Typologies

For this task I decided to use a recent decision I had to make in relation to new builds around the house. I live on a 1 acre property that has post and rail fencing only which offers no privacy. I had decided to build a retaining wall out the back of the house which is not actually required to retain but would be for aesthetics only. This decision was made purely on the spur of the moment in that something will need to be done out there. No real consideration was given to what to do or what we want to achieve from a living perspective.

After buying some materials my wife and I took a step back and considered a side fence that also needs to be built in order to gain some privacy from the neighbors. At this point I decided to attempt to utilize some decision making techniques as covered in the decision making course.

To that end I utilized Simon’s Normative model of decision making which consists of:

·       Intelligence

·       Design

·       Choice

·       Implementation

First we needed some information of the choices and discussed the pros and cons of both builds and talked about what benefits we would gain from them as illustrated in the table below with a point value of 1 for yes and 0 for no.

Then we moved onto design of the builds. This incorporated items such as the bill of materials, size and shape, future maintenance and overall aesthetics. For the retaining we decided to incorporate higher posts that would allow us to include a banister to prevent falls over the edge of the retaining. Alternatively for the fence we looked at size of palings, height and length of the fence. I used an excel sheet as attached to run scenarios of design to help with this.

We then made the decision to go with the fence build as all the indicators pointed that it was the most appropriate. We started the build this weekend looking at completing the implementation over the next 3 weekends.

Task 1 - Julia
Task 1 - Gunjan